It seems beyond belief but here I am looking at pictures, reading articles, messages, and maps, which all talk about Central Bangkok as a war zone. In fact, it IS now a war zone. The Army's plan is to encircle the demonstrators into a tight area from which people can not flee and into which supplies can not be brought. In the last couple of days, we have seemingly seen no positive results from the army side at all.
On the opposite: areas, which used to be considered safe are now extremely dangerous. Victory Monument and the close-by entertainment road Soi Rangnam (including the impressive King Power duty free complex) are now no-go zones. I am including a video of what is happening on this street.
The Army has positioned snipers on rooftops of strategic buildings. Red demonstrators get shot but no one knows why particular people get shot. (except the prominent shooting of Reds Army General Seh Daeng) Clearly however, all the dead are hit in the head with sniper rifles from above.
To be honest, I am confused about both sides and their motivations and actions. The Red Shirts had a deal on the table, presented by a conciliatory PM Abhisit a few days ago. It would have meant the dissolution of the Parliament within a matter of weeks and elections within months. This is what the reds wanted...they would have won the elections and been back in power. They could have rewritten the constitution and perhaps even given Thaksin a window to come back....but then they declined and started to demand silly things.
Why did they suddenly stop the cooperation and why didnt they take a reasonably good deal they could have agreed to? Do they want to motivate the countryside? Do they want to fire up their symphatisers in the rest of Bangkok? Did someone sell them out for personal gain? All I know is that the ones who have died and will die are not the ones who are leading the reds.
Abhisit on the other hand seems to have no other option. The centre of Bangkok has been occupied for weeks and the shopping malls, which belong to important people in the country want to sell goods again. After the refusal of the reds to cooperate, the PM had to act and send in troops.
But, do they have to place snipers on rooftops, where they can indiscriminately kill people? I have a feeling the Army isnt serious about taking back the main area of the demonstrators around Rajprasong because it would probably mean hundreds of deaths, including women and children.
At this stage, I cannot imagine what is going to happen next. The area of fighting is now so large and includes so many important buildings that it would seem impossible to conquer for the Army. Additionally, groups of protesters are forming again outside of the military ring, which makes the Army much more vulnerable.
While I hope for an agreement, or anything similar, which could stop at least the immediate fighting in Bangkok, I would like to share some of my thoughts and what should happen now:
-An outside team must be allowed into Thailand either under UN or under ASEAN leadership to negotiate an immediate ceasefire and a new roadmap to elections and.
-This team might have to be supported by a UN mission (military).
-In the longer term, a special envoy (see Aceh) could bring together the parties and negotiate a long-term peace deal.
-As a part of that, the constitution will have to be re-written. Thailand should become a federal state. Regional Governments should be elected by the local people. These governments will have the power to raise their own taxes and decide autonomously in policy areas such as education. There will be a national plan to redistribute tax income according to the wealth of provinces.
Unfortunately this is not what is going to happen. The Thai people, especially the Bangkok elite are too proud to let foreign people help them find a solution in this impossible situation. They still have the feeling that Thailand, as a "sovereign country" can control its situation internally. Romantic and naive notions of the Country of Smiles and the great City of Angels are still circulating. Unfortunately, we need to look at the reality and there, I think that the notion of a functioning state with rule of law does not apply to Thailand/Bangkok anymore.
I have seen pictures of people who got arrested and read twits of people who said they are being imprisoned for 6 months without parole. (unfortunately hardly anything is written about what happens to the imprisoned...) Now, Abhisit threatens the demonstrators in Rajprasong that they will be imprisoned for terroristic acts for two years.
Here, the Western world has of course set a wonderful precedence with its terrorism laws and the ubiquitous American rhetoric of “terrorism”. In fact, most people camping in central Bangkok would hardly be terrorists. Paralysing the centre of your capital for two months is hardly acceptable and setting fire to banks and other buildings is also not a noble act. Someone should be held accountable for such actions.
But someone also should have been held accountable for the airport blockade in late December 2008. Those who shout the loudest now and triumphantly argue that the “poor reds” lose work because of their protests would have proudly supported the “yellows” when they shut down air travel in Bangkok.
All in all, this shows that the Thai state is NOT able to guarantee that lawfulness, fairness and equality are practiced. There are too many actors with interests and too many people who primarily look for themselves, and in that, I think I can understand the frustration of many Thais.
The real damage to the society and country however will only surface after the dust over Central Bangkok will have settled and the last rounds will be fired. If the military is successful in suppressing the demonstrators and many more people die, I fear we will see large-scale uprisings, mostly in the countryside (Isan and North). Millions of red shirt supporters also live in Bangkok...It would be devastating and a parallel state (a very fragile one) could develop. This opens the door to all sorts of violence and irregularities. Policing would be impossible, travel would be difficult and trading too.
Whatever happens, the ruptures that run through the Thai society are larger than ever. The mistrust is so large I doubt people can live together peacefully anytime soon. I have also been shocked at the hateful and radical words which friends of mine (mostly middle-to-upper class Bangkokians) have been using. “Hate” is widely spread and is a common word for describing “the other side”. It’s all black and white.
The red shirts threaten the middle-to-upper class Bangkokian's lifestyle of superiority, nonchalance and arrogance. Whoever has been to Bangkok or lived there will know what is meant. Thailand is a class-based society and the top has done all it could to suppress the bottom. It is ironic then that the Reds have chosen to occupy the space next to Centralworld, the largest mall of BKK…
In a way then, none of what is happening is surprising. The price however will have to be paid by the commoner...and I fear THAT is not going to change, even after the current situation.
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